Tuesday, November 06, 2007

Early Returns covered my polling release from Friday. Only noticed today

Post-Gazette NOW - Local News - Early Returns: "In the absence of other polls ... Both Mr. Ravenstahl's and Mr. DeSantis' camps have kept their polling under wraps. No credible independent poll has been conducted. That has spawned no end of chatter about who has what data and why they're hiding it.

So into the breach steps Mr. Rauterkus, who is running for not just council, but also city controller.

Mr. Rauterkus, a swim coach and repeat candidate who is a beacon of openness in a stormy sea of campaign secrecy, said his automated phone poll gleaned 715 respondents.

He e-mailed us to let us know that 63 percent of respondents favored Mr. Ravenstahl, versus 21 percent for Mr. DeSantis, 3 percent for Libertarian Tony Oliva, and 1 percent for Socialist Ryan Scott. Combined, 'unsure' and 'not telling' polled 18 percent.

In his own controller's race, Mr. Rauterkus reported that he was trailing Democrat Michael Lamb 52 percent to 10 percent, but noted that the 38 percent who were undecided put him within striking distance, if he can win them all and then some.

Early Returns cautions that Mr. Rauterkus isn't a professional pollster, and didn't calculate a margin of error. That said, for his take on the numbers, go here and scroll down to his Friday posting.
Hey Rich Lord.... There is NO MARGIN OF ERROR. I got it on the nose. Right on the money.

I said Luke would get between 63 and 65%. That is just what he got.

I said that I was at 10%. That is just what I got.

I could NOT have been more exact.

On election day there are NO undecided. And, EVERYONE is in the "I'm NOT TELLING" mode with the secret ballot. In the polling, they had to tell me.

I may not be a professional pollster -- but -- as a hobby, I'm better than everything and anything you've got. And I'm better than everything and anything out there, period.

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