DeSantis is at 21%.
Libertarian, Tony Oliva is at 3%.
Ryan Scott, Socialist Workers Party, is at 1%.
Unsure is 11%.
Not telling, or mind your own business, = 7%.
The 11+7 = 18%. That was the topic for a recent email blast and blog post. It could have read 38% to 11% for even extra contrast. Seven percent know who they are going to vote for, they just are not telling.
In the two person race for Pgh Controller:
Michael Lamb, D, is at 52%.
Mark Rauterkus, Libertarian, is at 10%.
Unsure is at 38%.
If all the unsure break to Rauterkus, the race would be nearly tied.
I predict that Ravenstahl will be at 63 to 65% of the vote total.
Understand that DeSantis started at nearly ZERO.
More people signed the petition to get Rauterkus and Oliva onto the ballot than voted with the write in to get DeSantis onto the GOP ballot.
The media has done a poor job in coverage of the Controller's race.
Rauterkus has spent less than $250 in his race. Meanwhile, DeSantis has spent $300,000.
Rauterkus is getting twice as many votes from those who are going to vote for DeSantis than Ravenstahl.
DeSantis held a fund raiser for Lamb when Lamb was in a race for Mayor in 2005.
When Rauterkus ran for mayor, in 2001, the intent was to create opposition to Tom Murphy. Meanwhile, Lamb ran against Bob O'Connor and finished third in the D-Party primary. Lamb's vote total was less than Bill Peduto's.
Lamb ran for Controller in the D-Pary primary in May, 2007, and got 41% of the D-Party vote.
Throughout Allegheny County, there are less than 2,500 Libertarians. In the city, the number is much less.
The city council candidates who are challenging the endorsed Democrats each have a better opportunity to win their respective races than does DeSantis. The Republican label is too much of a liability for DeSantis at this time.
The DeSantis campaign has failed to build even the slightest teamwork among the other challengers to Pittsburgh's status as a one-party town.
The hope of all hopes for a DeSantis victory must reside in the new voters to the city. Those that have not voted before or only voted for the first time in 2007 and 2006 were not able to be within the poll. The younger people in the South Side, the college students, the recent arrivals could sway the election to the favor of DeSantis.
Of course a high voter turnout among Republicans and a low turnout for Dems would guarantee a DeSantis victory.
I have not looked at results from various sections of the city and from various party households. DeSantis could have a massive Shadyside, Regent Square and Sq. Hill vote total. That might have been overlooked within this poll. DeSantis might have a massive voter boom in Overbrook or Brookline. There are mysteries that will not be known until the voters speak and results are calculated.
Ravenstahl could still make two or three mistakes.
Ha, ha, ha section..... as it is nice to have creativity when facing data. Plus, I'm going to a tailgate with Pitt folks in the morning. Hail to Pitt. I won't unleash the poisonous snakes then. (Have you seen their blog?)
If Luke Ravenstahl kicks the winning field goal in the Monday Night Steelers game, DeSantis should instruct the fat lady to being to sing.
If DeSantis could get all weekend tailgaters a crash course in civics along with a hot sandwich on a fresh bun, Luke would go down in flames.
If the Libertarian, Tony Oliva, would parachute into Heinz Field with the game ball and proceed to return the opening kickoff past the Ravenstahl, err, Ravens 50, then Michael Lamb might have to get his next government job in the Law Department since Rauterkus would be a hero for recruiting Oliva to the ballot.
Finally, don't shoot the messenger. However, I have good faith that this poll is the most comprehensive done in Pittsburgh since Bill Peduto pulled out of the mayor's race in March 2007.
Tomorrow, watch this blog for video of the lone debate between the candidates for controller hosted by B-Pep and the League of Women Voters. Michael Lamb mentions dog licenses, for the 724th time at a public meeting. In his remarks at the debate, Lamb repeated the word "audit" 412 times in less than 30-minutes.
Link to the audio will go here soon.
Link to the spreadsheet of data.
Script of recorded phone call:
A mayor's race is here in Pittsburgh.
Residents vote for two city-wide positions on Nov 6. Your help for the next 60-seconds can assist in a scientifically valid poll.
In the mayor's race, if you expect to vote for
Luke Ravenstahl, Democrat, press “1”
if you expect to vote for Mark DeSantis, Republican, press 2,
if you expect to vote for Tony Oliva, Libertarian, press 3,
Ryan Scott, Socialist, press 4.
if you are unsure as to who you'll vote for – press 5.
if you would rather NOT say who may vote for – register a privacy tally by pressing six.
In the race for city controller,
if you are going to vote for Michael Lamb, Democrat, press 7
if you are going to vote for Mark Rauterkus, Libertarian, press 8.
if you are unsure about who you'll vote for for City Controller, -- press 9.
Finally, if you would want to get voter information and obtain the results of this poll, press “O” for operator and leave a message that includes your email address. We'll release the results to you as soon as this poll concludes.
Extra Q & A:
How many respondents?
715 gave something to tally.And what was the breakdown -- how many said they'd vote for you, versus Lamb?
Thousands of calls were made.
Lamb is at 52%, me 10%, Undecided 38%Who conducted the poll?
Me.Over what dates?
Most recent six days. But, I better triple check this in the AM. I stopped the poll at noon on Friday, Nov 2.Robo or humans asking questions?
And what's the margin of error?
?? That's beyond my pay grade.