Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Here are the numbers DeSantis needs to consider

Mark DeSantis is a Republican who wants to run for mayor. I asked him before his kick off in our personal meeting who he liked for President. I pointed out that the mayor's race and the race for county executive is going to take a back seat, sadly, to the race for the White House. We nominate and elect a president/vice-president in 2008. But, we've got lots and lots of coverage already devoted to that race. We've even had a hand-full of debates for the 2008 races and none for the 2007 general election.

So, the race for president is going to, at times, overshadow the race for the city's and county's top executive.

In no uncertain terms, I favor Dr. Ron Paul for president. Dr. Paul is a former Pittsburgher, former Libertarian and presently a Republican in the US House and from Texas. I love what he has to say on most issues and I love how he says it. Plus, his is a real grass-roots and internet driven campaign.

Since Ron Paul is a Republican, I figured I'd ask DeSantis what he thinks of him and who he likes in the GOP race for the nomination for President.

Perhaps DeSantis didn't want to hurt my feelings, or perhaps he hasn't thought about the issue. But, it is sure to come up.
President Bush's Approval

Pennsylvania voters disapprove 67 - 29 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing, his lowest score ever in the state.

Voters disapprove 70 - 26 percent of the President's handling of the war in Iraq and say 60 - 34 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

From May 22 - 28, 2007, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,318 Pennsylvania voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 575 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points, and 585 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.
Getting voters in Pittsburgh, in November 2007, to vote for DeSantis, R, is going to be nearly impossible. The impossible becomes probable as Luke Ravenstahl does further damage to the city and continually acts in ways suitable for 'moron status.' However, this isn't the year to be a Republican running for office because we'll still have George W. Bush as the most powerful man in the world.

On another blog in another discussion, one wrote that a vote for DeSantis could be considered after he would renounce his party affiliation and become an Independent, not a Republican. That sentiment is real and pervasive.

I would have ever thought we'd find our political landscape with these compounded situations:
  1. Our city is on the brink -- as it is and has been -- with no end in sight.
  2. Our mayor acts in nearly worthless ways.
  3. Our city council is fully marginalized by its own doings.
  4. The biggest political problems loom in the nation's capital, not on Grant Street.
This is not the year for DeSantis to run for mayor as a Republican and expect to sway many voters.

I'm never going to say it is impossible. I think in positive ways. I'm optimistic. I'm a realist. I've seen the tide turn in a number of ways in a number of instances throughout life. I've helped turn the tide in a number of instances as well. It is fun going downstream after going for a long time against the current.

DeSantis can win if he is brilliant and if Ravenstahl is arrogant.

Arrogant is neither 'good' nor 'bad.' I predict that Ravenstahl can be bad and responsive or else good and responsive and this will work well enough for Ravenstahl to keep voters on election day. A responsive Ravenstahl, even should he fill his resume with repeating blunders, is still going to trump a brilliant, Republican DeSantis.

Basically, we're screwed locally until 2008. By the end of 2008, Bill Peduto should announce that he's switching his party from D to independent. Furthermore, by 2008 Dan Onorato's ambitions are sure to buffer the harm he can cause to Allegheny County. In 2009, there will be another mayor's race as well.

With better planning, the 2009 mayor's race will occur in the fall. And, by then, the guy or gal running for the GOP won't need to carry the weight of the world on every step.

Tips for navigation of the landscape in 2007 follow:

Mark DeSantis needs to talk in candid ways about who he supports in the unfolding 2008 GOP Presidential Primary.

I would love to hear that Mark DeSantis loves Ron Paul too. That would be great. But, I don't know that.

I figure Mark DeSantis is not a 'small government advocate.' Rather, he is a 'good government advocate.' That's what he told me, and I take him at his word. But, there are plenty of ways to read that between the lines.

'Tom Ridge Republicans' like John McCain. Melissa Hart liked McCain too. It is fair to say that I don't get along with the typical 'Jim Roddey Republicans'. Jim Roddey Republicans voted for Dan Onorato in May 2007 and are not far from the Tom Murphy Administration. Hillman and hundreds of others love to wheel and deal with government money, corporate welfare, contracts from DC (even defense department contracts) and central planning actions.

Those folks are "bad" in the eyes of many die-hard Dems. I'm not that judgmental. But, it is fair to say that I'm not excited by the typical Republican directions and policies put forth from those in power in Allegheny County and Pennsylvania.

So, it is fair to say that we need to size up Mark DeSantis and his Republican Roots. He should do that for us in public in an urgent way.

Should DeSantis likes George W. Bush and like the idea of a first strike against Iran -- then ouch.

I think that the DeSantis campaign would double in size and strength in one week should he announce that he'll serve as an "Independent" as mayor of Pittsburgh. Within a month, that message will allow his campaign to grow tenfold.

Jumping from a BLUE State to a RED State -- yet alone a BLUE to RED city -- is a big leap. DeSantis needs to meet the city and region half way.

The other day as we talked about party stuff and this issue of liabilities with being a Republican he said it was like he was half-way on a journey in a row boat. He is crossing the ocean. He is way out there. He can't turn around now. It is what it is.

But, I think that there is more to that story. If a smart guy is half way between England and the US in a row boat and a cruise ship or sail boat or freighter comes along -- he's out of that row-boat. He'll 'jump ship' because that row boat is now a liability. He'll pick up a larger crew. He'll keep the row-boat as a great memory, but he'll look to the days and weeks to come. His chances for survival are greatly increased when he's is pushed along by the company of many others.

"Our City is Not Fulfilling Its Promise."

That was a sign at the DeSantis kick-off. I think it is fair to say that our nation is not fulfilling its promise too. And, DeSantis should 'de-cloak' and make a promise as to what kind of politician he supports and wants to stand with in the years to come.

The promise of doing nothing is bad news for the city. Do something makes for a good theme as long as DeSantis himself does indeed talk and make deeds occur.

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