Thursday, January 25, 2007

The Burgh Report -- pondering Peduto

Good insights from another blogger about Bill Peduto have been floated at his blog. He did two long posts with value that are worth pondering.
The Burgh Report
My extension of the conversation goes to a different conclusion. Look at place and time. These campaigns make a 1-2-3 combo. Its past, present and future.

Perhaps I should have posted this rant on his blog and not mine. That would have honored the thread, but it grew too long. And, I might want to later fix some spelling goofs. So, .... here goes.

In my not so humble opinion, Candidate Peduto stepped into a big trap when he said he has pledges of $500k.

This time, 2007, is not the last time. Now we've got the second stage. And, to be honest, in the spring primary, we've got the first act in the second stage. Think two acts within the second book of a trilogy.

Last election was "Bob's turn." The naysayers, plus Bob's being there leveraged Tom Murphy into the private sector. Yes! One down.

The city's Dems were NOT ready to jump from Tom to Bill in 2005. Didn't happen.

The city's Dems might be ready to jump from Luke to Bill in 2009.

Tip to Bill. Save HALF of what is raised in 2007. Then use it at the end of 2008 to mount a campaign where real contrasts can be illustrated.

In 2007, Bill needs to build political capital and live to fight another day. Bill needs to be a gentleman, schmoozing, unfrazzled and the gracious DEMOCRATIC Party alternative.

Bill's hyper campaign of 2005 edged him past Michael Lamb. That put Bill's stock in good position in 2007 to enable him a sit-down Delano interview with chump change in the bank.

I feel that the energy of Peduto 2005 was a great investment and wise then, but not now. Peduto 2007 has to have a statesman's persona, even like Lamb 2005.

Luke 2007 is going to be like Bob 2005 -- inside lane on the track, don't trip, don't self-destruct.

If a big wedge is driven between Luke and Bill, only 10,000 people will care enough to vote in the May 2007 primary and another 100,000 will vote with their feet and move out of the city before 2009.

A big wedge between Luke and Bill will make their careers crumble.

If Peduto rocks the boat in 2007 but still keeps his oars in the water -- he'll be able to go to the Congress or something that's a lot of fun for him in due time.

If Bill makes fireworks -- they'll backfire.

Luke has a temporary term (now). Then there is a short term through 2009. The REAL Ravenstahl vs. Peduto showdown should be, IMNSHO, in 2009 for the 4-year term that begins in January 2010.

Keep cool everyone. A long view is needed.

Bill should re-issue a statement saying that he meant to raise $500,000 for the upcoming campaigns -- plural.

Prediction: If the 2007 D primary goes with only Luke and Bill -- then Luke wins. But, I feel that if there was another champion D in the contest, such as Jim Ferlo or Jack Wagner, plus Luke and Bill -- then Luke could get third.

I think Candidate Peduto would do much better and could win if there was a three-way race. Bill, Luke and a heavyweight would erode Luke's base of support in the D primary. Plus, a heavyweight could make for more news cycles and a quicker conversation in the market place of ideas. Bill is going to have to slow dance on Luke's timing given a 1-on-1 race. I think it is going to be hard for Peduto to find a groove with a match-up against only Luke.

I'll post predictions about the spring 2007 primary. But count me out of the talk, here, when it comes to predictions for the fall's general election. I'm available for consulting to either, or ANY campaign, including media. Right now, none of them are taking my calls. They never have pulled me in for a Vulcan Mind Melt, yet alone a tuna melt. But if they do, trust me, I'll chat about it.


Thomas Leturgey said...

Running two and then again in 2009 is not how races are run in Pittsburgh. At least publicly.

Bill Peduto needs to run again, as he spanked the virtually unknown row officer Mr. Lamb. They had similar platforms, but Peduto was much better known.

Remember, Luke Ravenstahl has not run or won a citywide election, and with all of the "powers that be" shutting off funding streams from throughout the democratic party, Mr. Peduto is going to have a difficult time. However, he can win if he can energize the crowd to get away from the "old boy network" just recycle old names.

Money is why you won't see any other "big names" in the race. Ravenstahl's political infrastructure--Onorator and Gov. Sopran--have it all tied up.

If Peduto lays down, we'll have Mr. Ravenstahl for three election cycles. He might be a nice guy, but he has not earned a full term yet.

Mark Rauterkus said...

Of course Peduto should not lay down. It is good that Peduto is going to run. Peduto has to run in that he was 2nd last time so recently.

Likewise, for City Council district 3 with the sitting guy, Jeff Koch and challenger in the D primary, Bruce Kraus. Kraus needs to run as he go 2nd last time and Koch got good help from Bob O'Connor, now gone from the scene. So, Kraus has to do it and not lay down.

However, I'm sure that I don't want Kraus to win.

- - -
However, my crystall ball says if Luke wins in 2007 -- it could be EASIER to toss him from office in 2009 than 2007.

If Peduto burns bridges in 2007, then Peduto won't be able to run in 2009 and win.

John Kerry ran, tried, can't run again.

Al Gore ran, tried, can't run again.

There will be a time when the public gets feed up with the challengers antics, the envy, the hostility from within Grant Street, from head-butting that happens on the streets and in the neighborhoods.

The wine -- and whinning -- of Peduto against the 'old boy network' from a guy who has been all about political networking his entire life -- could get old by 2009 (depending upon how much exposure it gets in 2007).