Saturday, May 14, 2005

Internal polls -- reported in other sites

The skinny from elesewhere:

Fontana, the negative D, 44%
Diven, the new and negative R, 31%
Rauterkus, L, 25%

The internal poll numbers from the Fontana camp -- mentioned on the front page of PoliticsPA and GrassrootsPa, were reportedly from mid-weed, this week.

This is why neither Diven nor Fontana wanted the participation from a charging, popular, citizen candidate in the AARP debate.

Furthermore, the old-party candidates with negative campaign operations knew that I was the clear victor in the lone debate of the campaign, hosted in Mt. Washington on April 21.

The numbers above leave a lot to be desired.

What isn't being shown in the numbers above is the voter apathy to both Diven and Fontana. They are sapping out any energy from the race with their constant, negative mudslinging. Turnout is going to be much less than expected on this election because loyalist Dems and loyalist Republicans won't vote. They'll hold their noses and move onto another part of the voting machine, such as row-office reform or a local friend in a municipal race, school race or judge race.

Up to 90% of the voters who are still undecided are the ones who don't read junk mailers and don't watch TV. The final wave of undecided voters are breaking for the third party option. These are active and engaged citizens. These are the "do-ers" in the communities, and they have little faith in the status quo. Those who appreciate real grassroots campaigns have no confidence in what is being promised by Diven and Fontana.

This weekend's schedule is geared to connect with the busy community people who might still be undecided: Brighton Heights road race, a house tour, Pedal Pittsburgh on Sunday morning, a number of church visits in between, and a science presentation with elementary school kids in a local library (South Side), plus musical lessons (Carnegie) and a swim team function (Green Tree). Yesterday we watched a high school baseball game in Crafton with Langley.

I would love to stand next to one or both of the other candidates at Pedal Pittsburgh on Sunday morning. The contrast is dramatic.

The polling numbers also help to explain by a Diven operative approched us with enticements for pulling out of the race.

The Diven base crumbled. The personal friends that are clearly part of the Diven camp do not stretch to a district with more than 200,000 voters. Furthermore, the Diven approach does not work well with traditional Republicans. These people are principled voters who care about the big picture details such as message, freedom, and integrity. Diven's name ID is a factor. But, to the GOP core, the Diven name hinders. Diven has been part of Pittsburgh's city council and tied with close relationships with Mayor Tom Murphy. Diven has been a "self-proclaimed back bencher" and that does not build a viable resume to seek senate status.

Both Diven and Fontana have made a habit of putting up lawn signs in public right of ways and at empty / for-sale properties. Often two of the largest signs go at either end of the property line -- one for Diven and the other for Fontana. The foolishness is evident to the locals, some who even had signs appear in their yards without consent. At least the two heavyweights give themselves shelter from the folly.

Think again.

The campaign is doing much better than expected, in part because the heavyweights are doing their best to repeatedly harm themselves. Thankfully this is only a 19-month term.

Onorato's PAC (political action committee) gave $80,000 to Fontana recently. It was Fontana who co-sponsored the 0-1-2-3-4 property tax plan, pushed by Onorato. That bogus plan for taxing Allegheny County residents got tossed out by the judge for not being constitutional, and rightly so. That $80K can do plenty to whitewash the bill's memory from voters, but not so near to the election day.

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